The major averages have been below their all-time intraday highs for months now as highs were set between Aug. 30 and Oct. 3. Some say we are beginning the eleventh year of a bull market, but I believe that the 2018 highs began a bear market as only the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not reach bear market territory at its Dec. 26 low.
All four others did but the argument is the S&a;amp;P 500. If you measure using closing highs the S&a;amp;P did not. In modern times it&a;rsquo;s better to measure between the intraday high and intraday low. In do not know anyone who draws trend lines through closing levels, they use intraday levels. The decline from high to low for the S&a;amp;P was 20.2% (2.940.91 on Sept. 21 to 2,346.59 on Dec. 26).
The &l;strong&g;Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA)&l;/strong&g; (25,848.87 on March 15) moved back above my annual pivot at 25.819 above staying above its 200-day simple moving average of 25,152.09. My semiannual pivot is 24,340 with my annual pivot at 25,819 and my weekly and monthly risky levels at 26,404 and 26,540, respectively, with the all-time intraday high of 26,951.81 set on Oct. 3. My quarterly risky level at 27,043 expires at the end of March.
The &l;strong&g;S&a;amp;P 500 (SPY)&l;/strong&g; (2,822.48 on March 15) moved back above its 200-day simple moving average of 2,752.96 and above its monthly pivot at 2,811.3. My semiannual value level is 2,668.8 with my monthly pivot at 2,811.3 and weekly and annual risky levels at 2,849.1 and 2,867.1, respectively, and the all-time intraday high of 2,940.91 set on Sept. 21. My quarterly risky level at 2,931.4 expires at the end of March.
The &l;strong&g;Nasdaq Composite&l;/strong&g; (7,688.53 on March 15) moved back above its 200-day simple moving average of 7,485.23 and its monthly pivot at 7,478. My annual and semiannual value levels are 7,370 and 7,274, respectively, with my monthly pivot at 7,478, my weekly risky level at 7.756, the all-time intraday high at 8,133.30 set on Aug. 30. My quarterly risky level at 8,248 expires at the end of March.
The &l;strong&g;Dow Transportation Average&l;/strong&g; (10,310.12 on March 15) remains below its 200-day simple moving average of 10,539.44 and my weekly and monthly risky levels at 10,562 and March at 10,752, respectively. My annual risky level at is 10,976 is below its all-time intraday high of 11,623.58 set on Sept. 14.
The &l;strong&g;Russell 2000&l;/strong&g; (1,553.54 on March 15) remains below its 200-day simple moving average and its annual risky level at 1,583.73 and 1,590.63, respectively. My semiannual and monthly value levels are 1,504.17 and 1,501.79, respectively, with my annual monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1,590.63, 1,599.77 and 1,619.28, respectively, with the all-time intraday high of 1,742.09 set on Aug. 31.
&l;strong&g;My overall neutral zone remains as it was a week ago : &l;/strong&g;My semiannual and monthly value levels are 1,504.17 and 1,501.79 on the Russell 2000 with my monthly risky levels at 26,540 Dow Industrials and 10,752 Dow Transports. In-between are my monthly pivots at 2,811.3 on the S&a;amp;P 500 and 7,478 on Nasdaq.
&l;strong&g;Here&a;rsquo;s Last Week&a;rsquo;s Scorecard&l;/strong&g;
&l;img class=&q;size-full wp-image-59626&q; src=&q;http://blogs-images.forbes.com/investor/files/2019/03/Markets190315.jpg?width=960&q; alt=&q;&q; data-height=&q;487&q; data-width=&q;896&q;&g; Last Week&s;s Market Scorecard
The Dow 30, S&a;amp;P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 now have overbought weekly charts with 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings above 80.00 on a scale of 00.00 to 100.00. Transports remain below the overbought threshold. The stochastic reading for the Nasdaq is now above 90.00 which is an &a;ldquo;inflating parabolic bubble.&a;rdquo;&l;/p&g;
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